We have moved

Okay, so this is not an opinion piece as much an announcement. Our new address is 28-1, Jalan Telawi, Bangsar Baru, Kuala Lumpur. Yes, we are still on the same street but a few shops up.  (Right next to the Subway sandwich place). When we first moved from Sri Hartamas in the year 2000, we packed everything in one day, moved the next, unpacked everything the next day and were in business the day after that. When we shifted in 2007, the entire process took about five days. This time around it is ten days and we are still in a mess -- not that it has stopped customers from coming in. We sure have accumulated plenty of stuff, mostly books. (I am posting some photos here, including one of a swollen finger.)

We like our new address. It is bigger (a little), has a view (of the street) and there is no upstairs. We have moved our phones. Telekom insisted on appointing two different contractors to move the two lines -- since one of them is being used for Streamyx, never mind that it also had a phone on it. The two came at different times and it took them much longer than necessary. (Don't try to figure it. Telekom logic defies human common sense, and there is more of it later.) Then we got the keyphone and security cameras done. (Painless.) The signboard is up; a new drama will begin. Maybe, I will simply get a runner to kow thim the deal. I don't have the stamina anymore, what with Bomba wanting a piece of the action, as well.

And, it's going to be a busy July:

1. Saturday, 9th July 2011, 2.30 pm. Silverfish Writer's Forum. For this session we will be joined by a critique group of SCBWI (Society of Children's Book Writers and Illustrators). Linda Tan is the Regional Advisor for SCBWI in Malaysia and president of the local chapter. SCBWI is the largest  organisation dedicated to people who write, illustrate and are involved in children's books, covering various mediums from print to TV. Their HQ is in Los Angeles. There are more than 70,000 SCBWI members worldwide. The critique group is one of SCBWI's key activities in many countries. Many have found such groups to be supportive and helpful. The forum is open to anyone, especially those interested in children's books. Admission free.

2. Saturday, 16th July 2011, 5.30pm. Book Launch. The Amok of Mat Solo by Salleh ben Joned (a book that no one dared to publish or perform on stage for over twenty years) will be launched by Royal Prof Ungku Aziz, with a few songs (unplugged) by the talented Anna Salleh to celebrate her father's recent 70th birthday.

He was no rebel,
no avenger he,
the cause of his anger was a trivial thing,
a manhood insulted was a trivial thing.

The Ballad of Mat Solo (1981) -- Poems Sacred and Profane.

We will also celebrate Silverfish Books' 12th Anniversary on that day -- yes, we have been around that long -- and hold our grand shop-warming party (at the new premises) at the same time. Admission free.

3. Saturday, 23rd July 2011, 5.30pm. Readings from 2 books, Anarki di Kuala Lumpur by Mohd Jayzuan (Sang Freud Press) and Kasino by Saifullizan Tahir (Fixi). If you have never been to a frinjan event, you have to come to this to redeem your faith in the Malay writing scene. This is where it is all happening.

4. Saturday, 30th July 2011, 5.30pm. Book launch of DUKE by Rozlan Mohd Noor, another Inspector Mislan mystery in which he solves the twin Dukexpressway Murders, by the author of 21 Immortals. Here is a synopsis:

A married man and his young woman companion, whom he is planning to marry in Thailand shortly, are found dead in a car locked from the inside, with gunshot wounds, during Ramadan, on the DUKExpressway leading out of the city. It looks like an obvious case of murder-cum-suicide to all but Inspector Mislan, who is surprised by the amount of political interference and pressure he gets to close the case quickly, and at the attempts to frame him up for the fall.

Another great Malaysian crime novel by Rozlan Mohd Noor, with an ending that will surprise even the most ardent fan of the genre.

Admission is free to our last bash before Ramadan starts.

5. Silverfish Writing Programme that starts on the 16th of July, 2011 has been fully subscribed. Participants are encouraged to attend any or all of the events above to get themselves aquainted with the KL literary scene, and the standards to expect.

(I am not putting up any other post this month, so it is all summarised here. (Too busy moving, lah.) Raman 

Wisdom of crowds (or not)

Read this report by Brandon Keim in Wired Science and you can download a free pdf file of the full paper from here. Although it is not directly related to book publishing (or selling) it is a phenomenon that has puzzled me for decades.

In a paper titled How social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect, (edited by Burton H. Singer, University of Florida), authors Jan Lorenz, Heiki Rauhut, Frank Sweitzer and Dirk Helbing found that, “Although groups are initially “wise,” knowledge about estimates of others narrows the diversity of opinions to such an extent that it undermines the wisdom of crowd effect in three different ways. The “social influence effect” diminishes the diversity of the crowd without improvements of its collective error. The “range reduction effect” moves the position of the truth to peripheral regions of the range of estimates so that the crowd becomes less reliable in providing expertise for external observers. The “confidence effect” boosts individuals’ confidence after convergence of their estimates despite lack of improved accuracy." The recent global financial crisis is given as an example.

In lay language: In the study, members of one group used their own mental capacity to arrive at answers, and they got it mostly right. In the other group, when members are allowed to be influenced by answers of others, the answers became skewed, less accurate.

The authors say, “When individuals become aware of the estimates of others, they may revise their own estimates for various reasons: People may suspect that others have better information, they may partially follow the wisdom of the crowd, there may be peer pressure toward conformity, or the group may engage in a process of deliberation about the facts.”

This is something I have wondered about for a long time. (It is also for this reason we do not promote self-help and management books, though we sell a few. Please read the primary sources and make up your own mind, we’d say.)

One only has to visit any social networking site to witness the phenomenon, the hysteria of misinformation, everyone trying to influence everyone else. Social networks are neither good nor bad, they merely mirror society. While the mathematical model is fascinating (and does agree with many of my lay observations), I am more interested in the ‘why’. Are we hardwired that way? Is it part of our survival or coping mechanism? Are we merely being manipulated? (My assumption here is that the truth is better than the lie, though I am not interested in a Socratic argument about it. Am I being biased?)

From Thesaurus online:

TRUTH: accuracy, actuality, authenticity, axiom, case, certainty, correctness, dope, exactitude, exactness, fact, facts, factualism, factuality, factualness, genuineness, gospel truth, gospel, honest truth, infallibility, inside track, legitimacy, maxim, naked truth, nitty-gritty, perfection, picture, plain talk, precision, principle, rectitude, rightness, scoop, score, trueness, truism, truthfulness, unvarnished truth, veracity, verisimilitude, verity, whole story

LIE: aspersion, backbiting, calumniation, calumny, deceit, deception, defamation, detraction, dishonesty, disinformation, distortion, evasion, fable, fabrication, falsehood, falseness, falsification, falsity, fib, fiction, forgery, fraudulence, guile, hyperbole, inaccuracy, invention, libel, mendacity, misrepresentation, misstatement, myth, obloquy, perjury, prevarication, revilement, reviling, slander, subterfuge, tale, tall story, vilification, white lie, whopper

Below are two short stories which may or may not be related but have made me sit up and think.

One. When I was in college (more than forty years ago) I witnessed an incident. I lived in Block E of the Fifth College (yes, they were not very creative in naming the blocks or colleges). It was custom (a strange one, admittedly) to jeer any visitor from another block. This was normally done in good humour. Once, however, it turned ugly. The visitor was initially jeered and called names, as usual, which he acknowledged with a smile and a wave, as usual, then someone threw something. Soon an entire mob descended on him and proceeded to beat the poor chap as he ran to safely. I looked on from the third floor, where my room was, in shock. I was helpless. Although I was a senior member of the block, there was nothing I could do. That was my first introduction to a mob.

Two. I was in Trengganu in the seventies when I heard about the death of a close friend. I only heard it this morning, I said when some friends met in Kuantan that evening. Then someone else said, he heard it the night before, and, so, started the combative conversation, louder and more insistent. Someone else insisted she had heard it the morning before that, until it reached a point when one person claimed she heard of the incident the day before the death actually occurred! I could only sit and admire. It was a combative conversation at its finest!

Raman

Weirdoes and nut-jobs

Not too long ago I wrote about publishing being a weird business and that, ‘In none other will one meet so many weirdos and nut-jobs.’ Many of my customers were quite amused by that thinking, perhaps, I was referring to them. None of my them seemed offended (not to with me, anyway). I suspect that people who read books do entertain (and even celebrate) the notion that they are somewhat different from the herd. Truth is, they are. Readers are a minority in any country. The book industry of the past two (or three) decades was just that: an industry. It lived in an alternate reality. Books are not dead, they said. More titles were published every year (though one wonders why). But, nevertheless, books were dying, smothered by the very hands responsible for keeping them alive.

‘Readers’ became mindless consumers herded by cynical, relentless mass marketing pressure. It became all about books that ‘must be read’, complete with midnight queues. ‘Book discovery’ and real reading moved to the fringes. The fanboy (and girl) took over. One customer said she felt manipulated. Indeed, she was, we all were; manipulated to the point where we admitted we liked something when we didn’t -- like believing ‘Coke’ is good for health, or ‘... he can't be a man 'cause he doesn't smoke the same cigarettes as me’. It felt dirty. It was dirty.

Does all this sound elitist? Some use that word, without fully understanding its implications of power, influence and (worst of all) class. ‘Intellectual’ is close but not its implications of superior mental capacities. It’s about knowledge. Since the 80s intellectualism (in this country, for sure) has been taking a beating and has been cowering in ‘shame’ against the onslaught of the ‘common man’, and mediocrity; a swing to the right, of unbridled capitalism that gave nothing back (all, ironically, in the name of democracy). Greed was good, a virtue. ‘It’s not my fault if people are stupid and want to give me all their money.’

(Some years ago, when I first set up shop) I was having a long conversation about the media with a newspaper person ... about newspapers insulting the intelligence of readers ... yada, yada ... when I asked him at what level newspapers were pitched. He hesitated for a moment, and then said that in England the newspapers were typically pitched at 16-year-olds. (I was taken aback and I hoped he was speaking of tabloids, otherwise it would be too depressing.) “How about Malaysia?” I asked. He hesitated again before saying softly, “Lower.” It was scary, but sort of explained the level of intellectual debate (or the lack of it).

Question: “Would you rather have a discussion with someone coming from a position of knowledge, or someone coming from a position of ignorance?” Would you consider the two positions be exactly equal and valid?

Anyway, coming back to weirdoes and nut-jobs, I think I have mentioned (in earlier columns) about the father who wanted his school-leaving daughter to take up writing because JK Rowling made so much money. (The girl was not particularly interested.) Then there was this father who grabbed his daughter and bolted out of the shop and down the stairs when Phek Chin asked if he was going to buy the book the child just tore. (He had the audacity to come back, but still refuse to buy that book.) And we have had so many customers who looked like taxi drivers or Bandaraya workers, who’d quietly browse through every shelf for hours and, just as we think they are not going to buy anything, bring a stack of books to the counter worth RM300.

We once had this customer when we were in Desa Seri Hartamas who, on his first day, spent about two (or three) hours going through our shelves. He came back the next day and spent another two hours. He didn’t buy anything. On the third day I got a little nervous and I decided to talk to him. He said he was a labourer with Tenaga and that he liked books but he couldn’t afford them. I told he could browse as long as he wanted and that he could even sit at our tables and read them. I suppose I must have made him very happy from the way he smiled. He said, “Thank you sir, thank you sir,” repeatedly, until I started feeling a little embarrassed. The next day was Sunday. We were open and he spent eight hours in the shop. (He declined tea) We saw him a few more weeks after that, then he stopped coming.

At the other end of the spectrum is that loud know-it-all customer who will talk your ears off, drop names, try to impress you with his knowledge (God know why) and then leave without buying anything, only to repeat the performance on another day. Some will go through all your shelves and ask you for an author or title they know is not there. (Sometimes I will have it in another place, but when I get it for them he (almost always a he) will say that he prefers the ‘other’ cover -- whatever.)

I am sure I have mentioned the oily ones who'd throw their manuscripts on the table and tell you it is a sure bestseller, and the indignant ones who will shout at you and call you names when you decline to publish theirs (for whatever reason).

Still, when you come across a manuscript that works, you become so delirious it makes everything worthwhile.

The book industry tsunami

When I decided to retire from engineering twelve years ago to open a bookshop, the thought of a world of gentlemen and gentlewomen engaged in intellectual discussions, in soft dulcet tones, about good books, current affairs and ideas over coffee or glasses of red wine was immensely pleasurable compared to all the argy-bargy, the barely legal (and often downright illegal) activities and the thuggery of the construction world I was leaving (despite some severe financial adjustment I had to make). About a year after I opened the doors of Silverfish Books, the invasion of the mega-bookstore in Kuala Lumpur started. With their infinitely deeper pockets, they could order every book in the list, whether they knew anything about it or not.

The first half of the last decade saw the establishment of so many of these giant bookstores in the Klang Valley, that at one point we had more than twice as much book retail space here than in Singapore, an island with twice the population. Every new shopping mall insisted on a mega bookstore of its own. The most coveted name on the list was Borders, the store that had made reading sexy in Singapore where it was established in 1997. Borders was, probably, single-handedly responsible for making books hip-and-happening all over the world.

But that didn't last long. The second half of the decade saw a gradual downsizing (euphemistically called consolidation) of several chain outlets. The romance was over. Borders is gone. Barnes and Noble could be next. And Waterstone’s might be sold. So what happened? It is common to hear people blame the demise of these chain stores on the Kindle and e-books, etc, etc. Really?

Unfortunately, the truth is simpler. The book industry shot itself in its foot, and has no one to blame for it, but itself.

Book buyer fatigue

First, there was this humungous oversupply of books. Anglophone countries were churning out more than 300,000 new titles a year in UK, USA, Australia and India. A report in The Telegraph in August 2007, announcing the Booker shortlist for the year gave figures of copies sold: On Chesil Beach (Ian McEwen), over 100,000; The Reluctant Fundamentalist (Mohsin Ahmad), 1519; Mister Pip (Lloyd Jones), 880; Animal’s People (Indra Sinha), 231; The Gathering (Anne Enright), 834. (These figures were for sales just after the shortlist was announced.) It was a clear sign that book buyers were getting tired, but the industry was not listening and continued to produce books that nobody wanted.

Second, chains and supermarkets started selling books as loss leaders. Everyone knows how small the margins on books are. Supermarkets can afford loss leaders because they sell all sorts of other merchandise with high margins. When bookstores start giving away their profits on their bestsellers, however, one senses something amiss. Bestsellers are where bookstores make the profit to stock up on other titles. Most customers who go into a bookshop to buy a bestseller buy nothing else, unlike people who go to a supermarket. Amazon is able to get away with it because apart from books, it sells music CDs, videotapes and DVDs, software, consumer electronics, kitchen items, tools, lawn and garden items, toys & games, baby products, apparel, sporting goods, gourmet food, jewellery, watches, health and personal-care items, beauty products, musical instruments, industrial & scientific supplies, and groceries. (Instead of recognising this, the industry was more concerned about Amazon calling itself the 'world's largest bookshop'. Amazon is a mega hypermart, get it? The game has changed. Amazon and hypermarts reduced books to the level of soda water, and the industry went along foolishly.)

Third, the book is a monopoly. A book retailer, in most cases, is able to obtain a particular title from only one supplier, the publisher, and on the latter's terms. Period. The bookseller has no option of buying his merchandise at a lower cost from China, Vietnam, Cambodia, or manufacture it himself in one of those places, unlike hypermarts that are able to buy a garment for 15 cents and sell it for 15 dollars.

Million dollar advances

Fourth, poor management. (The internet has many examples of bad management at Borders but I shall stick to my experience.) When Borders opened its first store at the Berjaya Times Square in Kuala Lumpur in 2005, I went to over to see if they had copies of the hardback edition of Freakonomics. Their system showed three copies. I kept myself occupied with their CD collection while the sales staff went about looking for it. After forty-five minutes, they told me they couldn’t find even one copy. (Honestly, I don't know why I waited that long.) Another case:  Border's Singapore used to buy Silverfish publications through my distributor there, but they used to take forever to confirm -- apparently, they had to get the approval of their office in Australia before they could buy a local book. That would take months. Meanwhile other bookstores would have the title on their shelves the same week of publishing!

Fifth, the industry believed its own spin. The last decade was the era of the million-dollar advances and billionaire writers, if you believed the hype (and many did). All one had to do was to pick up a pen (or sit in front of a word processor) to get rich. It was bizarre. I remember headlines in local dailies calling Tash Aw the 'RM3.5 million dollar man'. When I asked him about it, he was totally embarrassed. (Tash said he has never mentioned a figure, so how reporters came up with that number is anyone's guess.) The industry lived on the hyperbole. Big numbers were good. It made good stories, good copies and helped sell books. Publisher, wholesalers and distributors, retailers, the media and the consumers, all loved big numbers (even if they were blatant lies). Reports started coming out that many titles were unable even to recover advances given; still, the numbers kept going up. It was the perfect bubble.

Sixth, over-printing to wallpaper chain shops. There was a report that the first print run of a particular popular book was 35 million. Sales figures released some time later showed 10 to 12 million. What happened? Was the original figure not true? Did the publisher pulp the remainder? Or did the publisher print the additional copies for reasons other than sales? If so, who paid for it? Did they print that number of copies to meet wallpaper demands of the chain bookstores?

Selling potatoes

Seventh, books retailers had no idea what they were selling. One of the reasons given for the demise of Borders in Australia was the way they sold books like potatoes. Taking it from the top, one has to wonder how some books even get published. (The head of Random House said in an interview with Spiegel Online that he had no time to read.) So who makes publishing decisions? Agents?  Then, there is the layer of wholesalers and distributors for whom potatoes, or books, makes no difference. After that, come the retailers. The book is probably the only commodity sold by people with zero product knowledge. (Independents not included.)

Eighth, everyone is now blaming the e-book. The e-book is still new. The Kindle is only three years old, and there are dozens of competitors in the market. The iPad is only a year old. Although many early adopters have downloaded ebooks, there are no real numbers to work on. How many of these books were downloaded for free? How many were paid for? At what price? The favourite number thrown about by device manufacturers is 'millions' (with no substantiation) and the media is lapping it all up and regurgitating it without question. (I have downloaded about a dozen free e-books books so far, mostly classics. Ironically, I find it more comfortable to read them on my little iPod Touch screen than on my iPad. I haven't tried a Kindle, yet.) Right now we don't even know what an e-book is. The Kindle defined one. Then the iPad turned it upside down in just a short while. Things are changing rapidly. Expect many more permutations before something firms up, still a long way to go before forms take shape and a market is established. Until then, many devices already purchased have a good chance of ending up on shelves.

Ninth, lesson not learnt from the music industry. A recent story in The Brave New World says: "... global recorded music sales fell by some USD1.5bn (GBP 930m) last year."

Will anyone learn from the music industry

"The UK music business physical sales dropped by almost 20% with the overall performance down some 11% and although digital sales continued to rise by some 20% it did not offset the equivalent loss in physical sales ..." it continues, and that US economist Joel Waldfogel does not agree with the music industry bodies and major labels that creation of new music has been hurt by piracy, and that with "... new and cheaper recording technologies, digital music outlets and social networks, many of the tasks that were previously fulfilled by the big labels could easily be taken over by independent labels, or even the artists themselves."